North Pole ice gone by 2012?

by Dalene Entenmann
Dec 18th 2007 @ 12:04PM

Filed under: Green by the Numbers

In 1897, a little girl named Virginia wrote a letter to the New York Sun asking if Santa Claus was real.

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus was the editorial reply.

The New York Sun might have saved Santa Claus from the cynicism of older friends, but 115 years later we might not be able to save Santa from losing his home if the current global warming trend continues unabated. With new data, scientists are more worried than ever, and some scientists believe we might have passed one of the first tipping points in climate crisis.

The acceleration of the Arctic summer ice melt is occurring more rapidly than predicted in years past.

National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) senior scientist Mark Serreze said, "The sea ice cover is in a downward spiral and may have passed the point of no return. As the years go by, we are losing more and more ice in summer, and growing back less and less ice in winter. We may well see an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer within our lifetimes. The scientists agree that this could occur by 2030."

Recently, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally stated we do not have nearly that long before we experience an ice-free Arctic during the summer melt season. Zwally, who refers to the Arctic as the canary in the coal mine of climate warming, suggests we only have until 2012 before a complete summertime melt of the North Pole.

The data shows the alarmingly rapid and changing ice melt predictions for the Arctic Ocean:

• In September 2004, the record for 1979 through 2004 estimated a decline of 7.7 percent per decade.
• In September 2005, the estimated decline became 8 percent per decade.
• In September 2007, the estimated decline is now over ten percent by decade. In addition, this year marked an event not remembered before -- the opening of the Northwest Passage.

According to the NSIDC, this summer started with a slightly greater ice extent in comparison to 2005. Might seem like good news. However, the rapid thaw began in late June and by early July, each day the sea ice melted by an area roughly equal to the size of Kansas. Sea ice extent continued its rapid disappearance through September.

Greenhouse gases caused by human activities, primarily through fossil fuel and coal CO2 emissions that began with the Industrial Revolution over 150 years ago, are the most likely cause for the accelerated Arctic ice melt today. It is not hopeless but we need to continue to change our lifestyle to a more earth friendly one, and demand that our government do the same in effectively addressing the global warming climate crisis. In the US, we have a presidential election coming up, and we must ask where each candidate stands on climate change. Technologies to capture the CO2 already in our atmosphere and dispensing fine particles to reflect sunlight are some of the ideas being considered as short term solutions.

To view an animation of the Arctic ice melt from June 2007 through September 2007, click here or click on the image at the beginning of this post.