Thursday, January 24, 2008

Wait, so global warming reduces hurricanes?

One of the many reasons you sometimes hear scientists freaking out about global warming is that, in theory, warmer ocean temperatures make for stronger, more destructive hurricanes. Seems like a good reason to freak out to me.

But today there's a new federal study that says just the opposite. According to the new research, warming waters lead to increased vertical windshear, which basically means it's now more difficult for hurricanes to sustain themselves, get stronger, or even form in the first place.

So...are we doomed, or not?

It's hard to know who to believe. This new research certainly sounds logical, but critics have rejected the study on the grounds that it's based on bad data -- and in fact, a Nobel Prize-winning panel on climate change rejected the research on those grounds. The problem, apparently, is that this windshear study is based on observations of hurricanes that made landfall in the US, which represent a very small percentage of the storms around the world.

Regardless, I think we can reasonably assume that at least two facts still hold true: hurricanes and global warming, if nothing else, are bad.

Gallery: Global Warming in Pictures

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